White House insiders privately acknowledge that a war with Iran could last through the end of the presidential term, but Trump insists the conflict will end by November.

According to U.S. officials, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other key aides discussed a scenario with Trump in the Oval Office and Situation Room: Even if the U.S. maintains its blockade and continues military operations, Tehran may still choose to resist, extending the conflict beyond the end of Trump’s term in January 2029. This assessment stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s public comments on Wednesday, in which he insisted the war would end “immediately” after the November midterm elections, as Iran “can’t hold on much longer.” The conflict is now in its seventh month, with 18 U.S. service members killed. Vance signaled last week that the conflict could drag on, saying he is uncertain when hostilities will end and refusing to provide “artificial timelines” that could be exploited by Iran. Signs of long-term war preparations are mounting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has labeled the maritime blockade and sanctions strategy “Operation Economic Orphan,” framing it as an alternative to large-scale military operations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has extended the deployment of some U.S. troops in the Middle East through 2027; the Pentagon plans to prolong air defense deployments with no set withdrawal date, and a third Marine Expeditionary Unit is set to deploy to the region this fall. Brookings Institution Iran expert Suzanne Maloney argues that the maritime blockade is unlikely to produce decisive results in the near or even medium term, noting its only realistic application is tied to a long-term siege plan. International Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez points out that Washington can continue to pressure Iran at a manageable cost, while Tehran can shift most of the pain onto its own people. “All parties are paying a price, but neither side’s leadership has paid enough to accept the other’s terms.”