Is De-Dollarization an 'Illusion'? New York Fed: Most Central Banks Have Not Been Selling U.S. Dollars
59 minutes ago
A new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed) notes that while the U.S. dollar’s share of global official foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 64% to 56% over the past decade, this shift does not indicate that central banks worldwide are systematically reducing their U.S. dollar holdings. Researchers say there is little evidence of widespread de-dollarization diversification efforts at the official level. The study shows that in two distinct periods since 2015, roughly an equal number of countries have increased their U.S. dollar holdings as those that reduced them. The decline in the dollar’s reserve share is driven primarily by concentrated portfolio adjustments among a small number of large reserve managers, rather than a widespread global reallocation of assets. Between 2015 and 2019, these shifts were led by two central banks; from 2019 to 2023, Mexico and Morocco also emerged as key contributing factors. The New York Fed adds that most economies’ foreign exchange reserve adjustments still primarily serve routine purposes such as meeting U.S. dollar liquidity needs, managing exchange rates, and addressing funding shocks, rather than an active avoidance of the dollar. Additionally, International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the U.S. dollar’s reserve share fell to its lowest level since 1995 in January this year, a trend largely driven by passive depreciation of reserve assets due to a weaker U.S. dollar exchange rate, rather than large-scale selling of dollars by central banks.
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