Middle East Situation Tracker: U.S. and Iran launch reciprocal attacks on each other’s oil tankers, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hit again, U.S. assessments suggest the conflict could drag on until November’s midterm elections.

Conflict persists across multiple Middle East regions, with the U.S. military and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming to have sunk each other’s oil tankers. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed it sank three IRGC oil tankers, while Iran said it struck three U.S.-linked vessels and three oil tankers. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted. The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported multiple merchant vessels in the Gulf were hit by “crippling fire”. An Iranian official added that vessels in the strait were “punished” daily last month. Conflict updates: CENTCOM says U.S. forces sank three IRGC oil tankers; the IRGC claims it struck three U.S.-linked vessels and three oil tankers. With the U.S.-Iran conflict entering its sixth month, U.S. intelligence agencies believe Iran has “gained confidence” and may seek to prolong the fighting at least until the November midterm elections. Iran’s military warned that if the U.S. continues its “destructive actions”, it will launch larger-scale strikes on U.S. forces. Iran denied that its Isfahan nuclear facility was attacked. Iranian media outlet Fars News reported explosions near Iran’s Kharg Island, with the specific cause unclear. Iran’s SNN news agency said an Iranian oil tanker near Kharg Island was hit by a missile, and no casualties have been reported so far. The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah personnel and facilities in southern Lebanon. Sources said the Iranian tanker that was attacked was empty, and its engine room was targeted. Iraq’s Oil Minister announced that Iraq has increased its oil export capacity to over 3 million barrels per day. Qatar’s Prime Minister held talks with Lebanon’s Prime Minister on de-escalating regional tensions and maritime security issues.