Analyst: Bitcoin is on the verge of entering a bull market, with its rally primarily driven by futures leverage.
2026.09.04 16:15:37
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is approaching the threshold to enter a bull market. Over the past 24 hours, BTC’s price rose 3.9%, while open interest increased by roughly 11,200 BTC, a 3.4% jump, signaling the current upward momentum is primarily driven by the derivatives market. Data shows open interest once surged by 15,200 BTC within 6 hours, pushing the leverage flow pressure index to 63; long positions were added for 15 of the past 24 hours. Adler pointed out that if a rally is mainly fueled by short covering and liquidations, open interest typically declines, but this time it has risen notably instead, meaning new futures leverage is the key driver of the price increase. His one-year model has not yet officially flipped to bull market territory. Confirmation signals require Bitcoin to close above the model’s dynamic threshold on a daily basis and hold that level without a rapid unwinding of leverage; the main risk is that accumulated leverage could be liquidated suddenly, triggering a market reversal.
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