Fed's Waller: Whether to raise interest rates in September will hinge heavily on next week's August CPI

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), US stocks opened with gains: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.4%, and the Nasdaq added 0.45%. The storage sector saw broad declines: SanDisk (SNDK) fell 1.6%, Micron Technology (MU) dropped 2.2%, SK Hynix (SKHY) declined 3.4%, Western Digital (WDC) slid 5.1%, and Seagate Technology (STX) decreased 4%.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), crypto-related stocks rallied at the opening of US stock trading: Strategy (MSTR) rose 6.62%, with its perpetual preferred stock STRC currently trading at $97.22; Coinbase (COIN) gained 6.3%; Circle (CRCL) climbed 7.05%; BitMine Immersion (BMNR) increased 4.3%; SharpLink Gaming (SBET) rose 5.2%.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Federal Reserve must establish clear and consistent policy reaction rules, otherwise markets will be unable to make predictions. He added that while specific quantification of the reaction function may have flaws, it is highly important from a qualitative perspective; his views on the perfection of the reaction function differ sharply from those of Federal Reserve Chair Walsh. On the issue of Federal Reserve transparency, Waller said surprising the markets serves no benefit, criticizing the "never explain" approach as an outdated and ineffective model, noting that appropriately disclosing future policy directions would be preferable. Waller also noted that there are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over communication matters, with strong opposition to scenario analysis emerging last year, and it remains unclear what the communication working group will achieve. Regarding discussions of the balance sheet working group, he will oppose any proposals that would push reserves back into a scarce state. For the data working group, he emphasized the need to guard against trust issues, advocating for the use of verifiable data, and added that the inflation working group may be most helpful to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

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Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed’s mouthpiece", says Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s overall stance has not fundamentally changed since July, but his policy tilt has shifted: from concerns and a bias toward tightening monetary policy back then, to cautious optimism and a preference for keeping interest rates unchanged now. The final decision will depend on August’s inflation data. Waller’s reaction path for the September 15-16 policy meeting is clear: if inflation continues moving toward the 2% target, he will hold rates steady; if August’s inflation figures come in higher, he will consider a rate hike.