Market cuts bets on Fed rate hikes; current probability of a September rate hike stands at 60.4%

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), US stocks opened with gains: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.59%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.4%, and the Nasdaq added 0.45%. The storage sector saw broad declines: SanDisk (SNDK) fell 1.6%, Micron Technology (MU) dropped 2.2%, SK Hynix (SKHY) declined 3.4%, Western Digital (WDC) slid 5.1%, and Seagate Technology (STX) decreased 4%.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), crypto-related stocks rallied at the opening of US stock trading: Strategy (MSTR) rose 6.62%, with its perpetual preferred stock STRC currently trading at $97.22; Coinbase (COIN) gained 6.3%; Circle (CRCL) climbed 7.05%; BitMine Immersion (BMNR) increased 4.3%; SharpLink Gaming (SBET) rose 5.2%.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the Federal Reserve must establish clear and consistent policy reaction rules, otherwise markets will be unable to make predictions. He added that while specific quantification of the reaction function may have flaws, it is highly important from a qualitative perspective; his views on the perfection of the reaction function differ sharply from those of Federal Reserve Chair Walsh. On the issue of Federal Reserve transparency, Waller said surprising the markets serves no benefit, criticizing the "never explain" approach as an outdated and ineffective model, noting that appropriately disclosing future policy directions would be preferable. Waller also noted that there are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over communication matters, with strong opposition to scenario analysis emerging last year, and it remains unclear what the communication working group will achieve. Regarding discussions of the balance sheet working group, he will oppose any proposals that would push reserves back into a scarce state. For the data working group, he emphasized the need to guard against trust issues, advocating for the use of verifiable data, and added that the inflation working group may be most helpful to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

According to GMGN market data, the Robinhood crypto-stock meme coin BONER briefly hit a market cap of over $69 million, and has now retreated to $61 million. It posted a 30.8% 24-hour increase, with a 24-hour trading volume of $17 million. BONER is paired with the stock token HIMS. BlockBeats Note: Stock Meme is an emerging concept that merges traditional meme coins with tokenized U.S. stocks. Unlike meme coins paired with USDT or ETH, these tokens are directly matched with on-chain U.S. stock tokens (such as NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, etc.). This model retains the high volatility and community-driven speculative traits of meme coins, while leveraging the popularity and narratives of real stocks. Typically, a portion of transaction fees is redirected to the community treasury to accumulate the corresponding U.S. stock tokens, forming a dual-driven model of "sentiment speculation + real asset anchoring". Related tokens are highly volatile, so users are advised to exercise caution when investing.

According to GMGN market data, the meme coin microduck, modeled after an open-source robot under Hugging Face, surged in market cap to cross $50 million in a short-term rally before pulling back, now trading below $40 million with a 24-hour trading volume of $15.82 million. The news backdrop: NVIDIA plans to acquire AI startup Hugging Face for $12.93 billion. The meme coin draws inspiration from Hugging Face’s real open-source small robot "Microduck" — a 25cm duck-shaped RL robot priced at ~$399 — released on August 27, 2026. It has no affiliation with Hugging Face, Pollen Robotics, or NVIDIA’s official teams, and is an independent meme token launched by the community capitalizing on the hype. BlockBeats reminds users: Most meme coins lack practical use cases and are highly volatile; please protect your assets and avoid FOMO.

Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed’s mouthpiece", says Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s overall stance has not fundamentally changed since July, but his policy tilt has shifted: from concerns and a bias toward tightening monetary policy back then, to cautious optimism and a preference for keeping interest rates unchanged now. The final decision will depend on August’s inflation data. Waller’s reaction path for the September 15-16 policy meeting is clear: if inflation continues moving toward the 2% target, he will hold rates steady; if August’s inflation figures come in higher, he will consider a rate hike.