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Analysis: Bitcoin may be shifting from a 4-year cycle to a 6 to 8-year cycle.

2026.09.03 16:20:37

On-chain analyst Willy Woo has published a post noting that Bitcoin has long been shaped by its halving mechanism, creating a relatively regular 4-year cycle. But as the supply boost from halving continues to fade, this endogenous cyclical driver is growing less significant. Woo highlighted that BTC’s current annual new supply makes up roughly 0.8% of its total supply, a figure set to fall further to 0.4% going forward. Meanwhile, short-term debt cycles in traditional financial markets typically span 6 to 8 years, leading him to argue Bitcoin may be gradually transitioning from its prior 4-year cycle to a 6 to 8-year one. The present period could mark the transitional stage of this cyclical structural shift.

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