Bitcoin enters 'Rektember': September has historically been a weak month for the cryptocurrency, with interest rate hike risks likely to suppress its August gains.

Bitcoin kicked off September on a weak note, falling below $78,000. Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month on average, with an average decline of around 3% and only five monthly gains, earning it the market nickname "Rektember". However, Bitcoin has posted gains in each of the past three Septembers. It rallied roughly 25% in August, its strongest monthly performance since November 2024, and may face short-term consolidation or even correction pressure. The macroeconomic environment is also weighing on assets. After Federal Reserve Chair Waller delivered hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, global bond markets sold off, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to as high as 4.784%. Markets currently assign a roughly 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on September 16, and are pricing in potential additional hikes this year. Higher interest rates typically tighten financial conditions, boost the U.S. dollar, and weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, persistent tensions in the Middle East have lifted oil prices, with WTI crude trading near $88 per barrel, while gold fell more than 2% on Tuesday. Traditional markets also face seasonal headwinds: since 1975, September is the only month with a negative average performance for the S&P 500 index.