Analysis: Bitcoin held by long-term holders rises to 281,900 coins, up 61.5% from August 18

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that between August 18 and 28, Bitcoin Long-Term Holder (LTH) 30-day cumulative distribution rose from 174,500 BTC to 281,900 BTC, a 61.5% increase, hitting its highest level since 2026 on August 28. The metric accelerated sharply during Bitcoin’s rapid rebound following a short squeeze, signaling long-term holders are taking profits amid the price recovery. Meanwhile, LTH MVRV rose from 1.31 on August 18 to 1.64 on August 27, and remained at 1.60 as of August 31, meaning the market value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders is roughly 60% above their average realized value. This indicates that despite rising distribution activity, long-term holders still hold substantial unrealized profits. Adler argues that the price rebound after the short squeeze has simultaneously lifted long-term holders’ profit levels and the pace of token distribution, creating conditions for further profit-taking. If Bitcoin prices hold steady, long-term holders may continue releasing supply, adding extra selling pressure to the market. The current market crux is whether long-term holders will sustain high-level distribution and whether new buying demand can absorb this additional supply; otherwise, the market may face renewed price pressure.