Waller’s Hawkish Surprise: September Rate Hike Probability Soars, Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI as Final Judges
59 minutes ago
StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that Christopher Waller’s Friday evening speech was deemed quite hawkish. Waller delivered what the market expected to hear on forward guidance: he does not believe in forward guidance, so he declined to pre-commit to a September rate hike. That said, it did not stop markets from speculating that a rate hike could actually be back on the table. On inflation, Waller stated that fighting inflation remains a clear priority, and he elaborated on this point, though he added that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Federal Reserve’s target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than market expectations. During Waller’s Jackson Hole speech, markets sharply repriced the Fed’s September policy decision: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumped from 30% to around 50%. Ahead of the September Fed meeting, one non-farm payrolls report, one CPI inflation report, and several other minor data releases are still to come. Under the new Fed leadership, the central bank has grown more data-dependent. Given that recent U.S. jobs reports have consistently missed expectations by a wide margin, any further signs of weakness could significantly erode market bets on a September rate hike.
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