Yi Lihua: Bitcoin may see a minor pullback in the short term, and plans to close long positions near $86,000.

According to views from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Barclays, and Goldman Sachs, markets are focusing on three key aspects of Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s first speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The primary suspense is whether Powell is a clear hawk or a neutral-to-hawk, and what inflation level would trigger his support for interest rate hikes; the market still has no clarity on his policy reaction function. The second focus is whether Powell will adjust the Fed’s policy framework, including its inflation framework, balance sheet, forward guidance, the impact of AI on productivity, and the quality of economic data. Morgan Stanley argues that these long-term issues may be more important than whether to raise rates by 25 basis points in September. The third focus is how Powell will address potential policy conflicts between the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. The U.S. Treasury is expanding long-term U.S. debt repurchases to lower long-term financing costs; if the Fed maintains high interest rates to curb inflation, it could keep long-term yields elevated. This speech may serve as an opportunity for Powell to outline how the two sides can coordinate. (Jinshi)

Crypto analyst Ali Charts has posted that Bitcoin’s current price action is forming a fractal structure similar to that of the 2022 bottom phase. In 2023, after breaking through its long-term downtrend, Bitcoin first tested the prior year’s August high, then pulled back to around $20,000 before resuming its upward trajectory. Drawing on this historical structure as an analogy, the corresponding key level to watch now is near Bitcoin’s May 2026 high, roughly $83,000. If Bitcoin faces resistance in this zone and pulls back, it could present the next major buying opportunity. However, this judgment is based on historical fractals and does not mean the trend will necessarily repeat.

Goldman Sachs strategist Rich Privorotsky stated that oil price movements could have a more substantial impact on the market than the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Goldman Sachs argues the market is currently overfocused on remarks by Fed official Waller while underestimating oil prices’ influence on inflation and financial markets. If oil prices decline, they could sequentially lower inflation expectations, ease consumer pressure, and drive down long-term U.S. Treasury yields, thereby reducing stock valuation headwinds and benefiting risk assets. Privorotsky added that unless Waller’s remarks deviate significantly from his prior policy stance, this year’s Jackson Hole event is unlikely to present major event risks.

Beating AI News (Dongcha) reports that OpenAI is testing the Persistent mode for Codex, also known as the continuous operation mode. Unlike regular agents which typically stop after completing one task, this mode enables Codex to proceed to check and handle follow-up tasks after finishing its current assignment. The relevant code has appeared in Codex’s public repository, though OpenAI has stated there are no immediate plans to roll out the feature.

Bitcoin has recently returned to the $80,000 mark. BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, believes the market is refocusing on Bitcoin’s safe-haven attributes and its role as a hedge against currency devaluation. Unlike previous rallies that largely tracked the Nasdaq and tech stocks, this upswing appears to be a macro repricing driven by growing concerns over debt, deficits, and the U.S. dollar’s creditworthiness. This assessment aligns with recent market movements. Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from its $60,000 range low, briefly topping $81,000; meanwhile, gold has also held strong, with U.S. long-dated Treasury yields and U.S. fiscal sustainability emerging as key market talking points. BlackRock argues that when debt, deficits, and currency devaluation return to investors’ radar, scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold will see stronger allocation demand. Funding conditions have also shown signs of improvement. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of around $2.4 billion in August, marking one of their strongest months so far this year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has declined significantly, with some traders noting its recent performance is more similar to gold’s. This signals that the market is shifting back from "risk asset trading" to "macro hedging trading."

Yihua Yi, founder of Liquid Capital, noted that Bitcoin has yet to break through the resistance level around $81,000, and is likely to see a minor pullback in the coming days before resuming its rally to breach that zone. The next key resistance level to monitor stands at roughly $86,000. He plans to close his long positions when Bitcoin approaches $86,000, as this level could trigger a substantial pullback. Still, he maintains that the bull market trend is already in place: even if the price enters the resistance zone and turns short-term bearish, he will only close out long positions, not open short ones.