SemiAnalysis Founder: Most AI computing power will belong to only two companies by 2028.
54 minutes ago
Beating AI Express: SemiAnalysis founder Dylan Patel predicted in a recent podcast that by 2028, OpenAI and Anthropic could capture 70% to 80% of the world’s new AI computing power, with their combined capacity potentially exceeding 100GW. Patel noted the two companies currently account for roughly 30% of global annual new computing power, a share rising rapidly. He pointed out that leading AI labs’ business models are evolving, with AI computing power output efficiency improving significantly; Anthropic now generates around $50 million in revenue per megawatt of computing power, a figure that could climb to $100 million. This allows OpenAI and Anthropic to purchase or lease computing power at high prices of $25 million to $50 million per megawatt. More notably, Patel forecasts global AI-related capital expenditure will reach approximately $11 trillion between 2024 and 2029, with over $5 trillion needing to be financed via debt. Given AI infrastructure’s potential returns are far higher than those of traditional industries, tech giants may accept higher financing costs, which could push up overall credit rates and squeeze traditional asset valuations and highly indebted economies. Additionally, Patel believes future new computing power may not be primarily used for external model inference services, but will instead flow more toward internal R&D and model self-improvement at AI labs.
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