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Analysis: Bitcoin Holding Above $81,000 Could Mark a Key Signal of the Bear Market's End

2026.08.25 19:30:49

Bitcoin surged roughly 25% over the past week, briefly hitting near $80,000, but market analysts note that the 50-week simple moving average (50W MA) remains a key technical resistance level to determine if the current bear market has truly ended. The average is currently trading in the range of approximately $81,000 to $82,000. Galaxy Research states that in past completed bear markets, BTC has seen the bear market bottom form 11 times when the asset reclaimed its 50-week MA. If Bitcoin can hold above this average at the weekly close, historical patterns suggest the current bear market is very likely over. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has broken above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages on the daily chart, signaling a sharp rise in short-term momentum. Some analysts believe this cycle’s low may already be in place, but with Bitcoin’s 7-day gain hitting roughly 25% and its 7-day Rate of Change (RoC) at an unusually high level not seen in nearly five years, historical data shows such extreme readings often precede short-term pullbacks or sideways consolidation rather than sustained straight-line gains. Going forward, the market will closely monitor whether Bitcoin can effectively break above and hold the 50-week MA to further confirm a trend reversal.

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