Analysis: Bitcoin’s moving average alignment remains bearish, with a key resistance level of $83,200 (the 365-day Simple Moving Average, SMA365)

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that after a pullback, Bitcoin has reclaimed its short-term holder cost base of roughly $68,200. Meanwhile, with rising trading volume, the price has broken through the SMA200 (200-day simple moving average) level of around $69,000 and SMA111 of approximately $67,500. A large number of holders who bought recently are back in profit, easing the selling pressure from short-term holders who were in the red. However, Bitcoin’s moving average alignment still maintains a bearish structure: SMA111 sits below SMA200, and both are lower than SMA365’s roughly $83,200. This indicates the current move is merely a strong short-cycle recovery, not a confirmed reversal of the broader trend. The most critical upside resistance is the SMA365 level at $83,200. If the price stalls and pulls back at this level, the existing bearish structure will hold; if it can effectively reclaim it, this could mark the first serious evidence of a trend reversal. Key downside support lies in the $67,000 to $69,000 range, which encompasses both the short-term holder cost base and the dense zone of SMA111 and SMA200. As long as the pullback holds this range, short-term holders remain profitable, and the price stays above the moving averages, the market structure still holds upside potential; a break below would resume downside risks. The current market is leaning positive but has not yet fully entered a high risk appetite mode.