Bitunix Analyst: U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to be suppressed via repo operations, and structural pressure remains on long-term interest rates.
43 minutes ago
U.S. long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of long-term U.S. bond repurchases has had limited effect. Repurchases mainly improve market liquidity but cannot alter the core pricing of long-term interest rates; what truly determines yields are fiscal deficits, inflation, Treasury supply, and global capital allocation. Against the backdrop of sustained U.S. financing needs and AI-related capital expenditures driving long-term funding demand, the term premium demanded by the market is likely to stay high. U.S. debt pressures are also interconnected with global bond markets and energy risks. Japanese long-term bond yields are at high levels; a further rise could increase incentives for Japanese capital to flow back home, exerting additional selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, risks such as those in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian refineries, and Red Sea shipping could push up costs for refined products, insurance, and transportation, increasing global inflation uncertainty. If the U.S. expands secondary sanctions on Iran, it could further drive up energy and trade costs. As such, the Jackson Hole Symposium will serve as a key observation window. Markets should focus more on how Wash views inflation, long-term interest rates, and balance sheet policies, rather than simply waiting for rate cut signals. For the crypto market, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are a key benchmark for dollar funding costs; if yields remain elevated due to fiscal factors, inflation, and global capital competition, they will continue to compress the valuation space of high-volatility assets. In other words, before there is substantial improvement in deficits, inflation, and financing needs, U.S. Treasury repurchases are more a tool to alleviate pressure than a fundamental solution to reverse the long-term interest rate trend.
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