Bitfinex: Bitcoin's current rally is primarily driven by spot demand and short covering, with profit-taking emerging as the biggest risk.

Bitcoin has recently rallied to a multi-month high, with Bitfinex analysts noting the current upswing is driven primarily by spot buying and short covering rather than new leveraged funds, giving it longer staying power than a typical short squeeze. As all investors who bought bitcoin over the past five months are currently in unrealized profit, the key risk to the current rally comes from profit-taking flows into trading platforms. Bitfinex identifies the U.S. Treasury’s August 19 announcement to expand its long-term bond repurchase program as a major catalyst for the recent price action. The early stage of this rally was indeed fueled by short liquidations. On the same day, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $297.6 million in inflows. However, subsequent price gains were driven mainly by spot buying. Looking at positioning, while bitcoin prices rose 10% to 11%, open interest (OI) increased by only around 4%, indicating spot demand and short covering are the primary drivers, with leveraged funds playing a limited role. Bitfinex points out that the $68,000–$69,000 range is a key current support level, near the average cost basis of bitcoin buyers over the past five months. Holding above this level will keep those investors in profit, reducing selling pressure from previously trapped positions during rebounds. On the funding front, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day inflow of $606.29 million on August 20, the largest daily inflow since May 1, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for roughly 82% of that total. Bitfinex says if this inflow persists for a week, it will further strengthen the market’s demand structure. However, Bitfinex warns that the biggest current risk is a surge in profit-taking bitcoin flowing into trading platforms, which could trigger the largest sell-off since 2026. Analysts add that if real yields rise back to levels that previously pressured bitcoin below $65,000, macro factors could quickly impact the market.