Citadel Founder: Has Eliminated Over 80% of Risks from Original Situational Awareness Portfolio

Tom Lee posted on X that investors waiting for the October crypto market bottom need to re-examine timing risks. Citing Fundstrat’s “Bitcoin Rule of 10 Best Days,” he noted that Bitcoin’s long-term gains are heavily concentrated in a small number of trading sessions. Historical data shows most of Bitcoin’s returns stem from its 10 best-performing trading days annually; missing these 10 days could lead to a sharp drop in investment returns. Data indicates that capturing Bitcoin’s 10 best trading days yields a cumulative return of roughly 162%, while returns fall to -14% if these days are excluded. “This week has already become one of those 10 best days, so long-term investors should opt to HODL rather than attempt to time the bottom precisely,” Tom Lee stated.

Prominent trader Killa has released a post updating his latest market outlook: “I remain bullish on the market, but highly doubt Bitcoin will break $100,000 this year. I expect it will stay range-bound. My plan remains unchanged: after the first rally, we will reaccumulate positions ahead of the next move, similar to 2022.” Killa, a BTC-focused quantitative trader, predicted the peak of the current bull market in May 2025 and boasts over 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then shifted to long positions during the broad market sell-off on June 5.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), Tesla rose 4.4% intraday, hitting a one-month high.

According to Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens, Hyperliquid’s testnet has added compliance operation control functions including whitelisting, forced liquidation, and collateral transfer. Currently, a node named "Kraken HIP-3 test DEX" is testing these permissioned functions and has added 10 wallets to its whitelist. While the testnet supports permissionless deployment, combined with recent business expansion moves of Kraken’s parent company, the community speculates that Kraken may be the first centralized exchange (CEX) to test this compliant DEX functionality.

On Friday, S&P Global released its latest PMI survey data, showing that the US Composite Output Index jumped sharply from 54.5 in the previous month to 56.0 in August, hitting its highest level since April 2022. This overall acceleration was entirely driven by an unexpected surge in the services sector. The initial reading for August’s services PMI stood at 56.8, significantly higher than July’s 54.6 and marking the highest level since December 2024. Typically, a PMI reading above 50 signals that the relevant economic activity is in an expansionary phase. This data completely shattered Wall Street’s earlier expectations of an economic slowdown. Economists had widely projected that August’s services PMI would fall to 54. S&P Global forecasts that the current third-quarter survey data indicates the US annualized economic growth rate is approaching 3.0%, a solid doubling from the 1.5% pace in the second quarter. However, the rapid economic expansion is still accompanied by latent inflation risks. The latest report shows that while inflationary pressures eased slightly in August, the growth rates of input costs and selling prices remain at high levels.

SOL Treasury Company (HSDT) has announced its voting stances on the first three Solana Governance Proposals (SGPs): it supports SGP-0001, the "Solana Constitution"; opposes SGP-0002, which would double the inflation reduction rate; and rejects SGP-0003, which would shift transaction fees from fixed to variable. On-chain voting is scheduled to open on August 22. The firm stated its support for the Solana Constitution stems from the new governance framework, which allows every staker to vote directly, and holders can always override the votes of the operators they have delegated—this, it says, facilitates institutional participation in network decision-making. Regarding the other two proposals, the company emphasized it is not opposed to the policy directions themselves, but rather the timing. This is a critical phase for institutions considering entering Solana, where rule stability and predictability are top priorities for institutions. Altering core economic parameters like inflation rates and transaction fees at this juncture could further deter institutions that remain on the fence. The firm added that it will support revisiting inflation reduction once it sees sustained net capital inflows into SOL, and is open to reconsidering variable transaction fees after the ecosystem adapts.