Serenity: Leveraged traders shift to crypto markets and biotech, AI stocks are poised for a faster rebound

Samsung has recently raised foundry prices for some 4nm, 5nm, and 8nm nodes by 10% to 15%. TSMC has also hiked its 2026 capital expenditure to $60 billion to $64 billion, reflecting that existing production capacity still cannot fully meet AI demand. This round of price hikes benefits storage, foundry, and packaging players controlling scarce capacity, but will raise costs for server, PC, and consumer electronics firms. The market will next focus on the race between upward earnings revisions and new capacity expansion: the longer the supply shortage persists, the stronger the pricing power of leading players; if capacity expansion outpaces actual AI demand growth, price corrections and inventory reversals will amplify volatility in semiconductor stocks. (Jinshi)

Goldman Sachs OneDelta head Rich Privorotsky noted that AI and momentum trading have seen sharp swings over the past 48 hours, with Goldman Sachs’ GSPUMOMO momentum portfolio down nearly 7% in total. However, per Goldman Sachs Prime data, position changes are far more moderate: momentum exposure is now near neutral, investors have mostly added net exposure recently, and total leverage has not risen significantly again. This is particularly important as the market just went through a major de-risking process in July. While investors still hold considerable AI and semiconductor exposure, it remains well below earlier peak levels. Leverage within the semiconductor sector has declined, though some residual leverage remains in the system. A sharp price drop could easily trigger passive position cuts and forced selling. As such, recent sharp swings in AI stocks may be further amplified by low market liquidity in August. Intraday price action appears highly "fundamental-driven", but may not actually align with comparable fundamental changes. At this stage, it is more appropriate to continue monitoring total leverage, Prime positions, and semiconductor capital flows to assess whether this round of volatility will evolve into broader de-risking. (Jin10)

On-chain analyst Ali Charts said Bitcoin has now formed strong support in the $61,849 to $63,111 range, an area where over 2 million BTC were previously traded. More importantly, data from the Unrealized Profit/Loss Distribution (URPD) metric shows Bitcoin has relatively few resistance zones above its current level. Ali Charts added that if BTC can break through $75,733, the next major supply dense zone is likely located in the $83,307 to $84,569 range, where roughly 1 million BTC changed hands previously.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), the total short position of the whale codenamed "Set 10 Big Goals First" has risen to $143 million, with an unrealized loss of $309,000. Details: 5x leveraged short position on Bitcoin (BTC) holds 1,449.968 BTC, worth around $108 million, at an average entry price of $74,570.99; 7x leveraged short position on Ethereum (ETH) holds 15,000 ETH, worth approximately $35.21 million, with an average entry price of $2,347.89.

Bitget’s latest data shows that as of August 20, the cumulative number of trades on its TradFi contracts in August has surpassed 150 million, with a daily peak of 13.64 million trades. As demand for trading traditional financial assets including US stocks, foreign exchange, precious metals, and commodities continues to rise, trading activity in Bitget’s TradFi segment has further improved.

According to monitoring by TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight), an address starting with 0xa0....e553c has recently completed a clear BTC long position build-up. Order records show the address did not chase prices at a single point; it had previously attempted swing trading for BTC and the XYZ:100 index multiple times. This round, after confirming an uptrend around August 20, it gradually built its BTC position via multiple orders. Entry prices for the position range from approximately $53,653 to $66,667, with multiple large orders of ~132.67 BTC, eventually forming a BTC perpetual long position worth around $9.9 million. Currently, it holds BTC longs valued at $9.89 million, with an average entry price of $68,785.80, an unrealized profit of $760,000, and a return of 154%. The address has not allocated large sums to ETH, SOL, or other popular altcoins, instead concentrating its funds heavily on BTC. Its position adjustments appear to be front-running expectations of improved macro liquidity. Additionally, as early as the start of August, the address began positioning for the XYZ100 index, with multiple rounds of adding and reducing positions during that period. This development comes amid recent improved expectations for U.S. digital asset regulation, policy signals supporting crypto market structure development, and improved liquidity expectations pushing BTC back to key price levels. On-chain Perpetual (Perp) and address analysis tool TradingBeats is now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, enabling full deep analysis from address tracing to whale operations, all at a glance.