Federal Reserve officials downplay the risks of U.S. Treasury sell-offs, but policy divergences remain in September.
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U.S. Treasuries have faced sharp selling recently, with long-term yields once hitting their highest level since 2007, though Federal Reserve officials downplayed market concerns about so-called "damaged policy credibility". San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem both attributed the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields more to government financing needs and capital demand from AI infrastructure construction, rather than runaway inflation expectations. However, the two hold clear differing views on September monetary policy. Daly argued that recent inflation, retail sales, and employment data have reduced the need for further policy tightening, noting current policy is in a "good place" and there is insufficient basis for preemptive rate hikes or cuts. Musalem, by contrast, is more hawkish, stating core inflation remains at a high level of 2.5% to 3%, current policy may be near neutral or even accommodative, and revealing he leaned toward a rate hike at the July meeting. Market expectations for a September rate hike have cooled significantly, with the associated probability dropping from over 70% at the end of July to around 30%. Notably, neither of the two has a vote on the FOMC this year, while three officials dissented from the decision to hold rates steady at the July meeting, indicating policy divisions within the Federal Reserve remain unresolved.
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