Goldman Sachs: Pricing for the September interest rate hike leans hawkish; pressure on US stocks stems from fluctuating interest rate expectations.
41 minutes ago
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius’s latest analysis suggests the market’s pricing of a September FOMC rate hike remains overly hawkish. The bank estimates that unless August data (due early September) shows a clear reversal, the Federal Reserve’s likelihood of raising rates at its September 15-16 meeting is “very low.” Goldman cites reasons including a notable slowdown in job growth, cooling consumer momentum, and inflation trends likely to keep improving. From Goldman’s view, recent data is weakening the case for a rate hike. U.S. July potential employment growth was reportedly only around 5,000, below the level needed to maintain labor market balance; weak retail sales point to consumption growth slowing to 1%-1.5% in the second half; core PCE inflation is still expected to gradually fall, approaching the 2% target by 2027. Hatzius adds that after two consecutive months of soft jobs and inflation data, the threshold for dovish policymakers to back a rate hike is high. However, Fed meeting minutes have introduced new market volatility. The July meeting minutes, released early August 20 (Beijing time), show more officials supporting further policy tightening than in June, with several policymakers noting that higher rates may still be required if inflation fails to cool further. This makes it difficult for markets to directly bet on a “Goldman-style dovish interpretation,” and short-term rates and tech stock valuations will continue to be impacted by shifting policy expectations.
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