Glassnode: Bitcoin remains in the "capitulation phase", and the current rally should be viewed as a partial rebound during the bottoming process.

Glassnode released a report at 12:00 AM this morning, noting that Bitcoin’s on-chain structure remains in the "capitulation phase". The cost base of short-term holders has dropped to around $68,500, lower than the real market average of approximately $75,800. Meanwhile, the relative unrealized loss in this cycle peaks at roughly 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% level seen during capitulation phases in previous cycles. This indicates that the current market loss is relatively mild but more dispersed, potentially requiring a longer period to complete the clearing process. Glassnode also stated that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.75, while historically this metric typically falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion occurs, meaning genuine seller exhaustion has not yet emerged. The firm further emphasized that until this metric breaks back above 2, any price rally should be viewed as a local rebound rather than a fundamental shift in market trend. Additionally, the 30-day directional premium in the perpetual contract market turned sharply negative during the recent sell-off, but has since rebounded significantly and returned to positive territory. This signals that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay a premium for long exposure, and speculative risk appetite has improved somewhat. However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual contract market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains consistently negative, indicating that meaningful demand has not yet returned to the U.S. spot market.