Analysis: If Bitcoin falls below $49,400, long-term holders will face overall losses, and selling pressure has now reached its lowest level in the cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis showing on-chain data that Bitcoin’s long-term holder cost base stands at $49,400, with a current price multiple of 1.3x. Bitcoin has spent 78 consecutive days in the low-risk zone between the long-term holder cost base and 1.5x that level, where the 1.5x threshold corresponds to a price of roughly $74,100. Long-term holder supply currently sits at 16.35 million BTC, just 58,000 BTC below the all-time high of 16.41 million BTC recorded on July 30. Only two days of supply decline have been seen in the past 15 days, indicating the group’s selling frequency has nearly hit its lowest level. The analyst noted these two signals together point to: valuation remaining low relative to the long-term holder cost base, and long-term holders showing almost no sustained selling signs. He emphasized this combination is a “constructive supply structure” but does not alone constitute an independent signal that a new rally has begun. Current conditions show long-term holders as a whole are still in unrealized profit (price is roughly 30% above the cost base), and the market remains in the lower end of its historical valuation range. However, for a new uptrend to unfold, further confirmation from both demand and price sides is needed. If the price falls below $49,400, long-term holders will collectively shift into unrealized loss, entering a lower-risk zone from a valuation perspective, but meaning significantly rising pressure on long-term holders from a market condition standpoint.