Goldman Sachs: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are overly hawkish.
50 minutes ago
Goldman Sachs said that given U.S. inflation is cooling, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes remain overly aggressive. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report that due to weak retail sales data, disappointing employment figures, and continued slowing inflation data, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates at its September meeting is "extremely low". Hatzius noted: "Based on our baseline economic forecast, the likelihood of inflation data improving further over time is higher than that of it worsening again. We still believe market pricing for the federal funds rate is overly hawkish." Data shows markets have pushed back expectations for the Fed's next 25-basis-point rate hike to January next year, while just a week ago, markets had fully expected the Fed to raise rates in December. Goldman Sachs believes that although market pricing is no longer as hawkish, there is still room for rate hike expectations to fade further.
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