Preview: U.S. July retail sales data will be released tonight; if it comes in stronger than expected, it will dampen the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
2026.08.14 17:28:30
After this week’s release of U.S. CPI and PPI data, market sentiment has not yet fully digested the information. At 20:30 UTC+8 tonight, the U.S. July retail sales data—widely known as the "Terror Data"—will be released. Current market forecasts show retail sales are expected to rise by just 0.1% month-on-month, while core retail sales (excluding volatile items like automobiles) are also projected to see modest growth. This data directly reflects U.S. household consumption willingness and purchasing power, serving as a key indicator to judge whether the economy will achieve a soft landing or stall. Against the backdrop of sharply intensifying internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and a sensitive window where international gold prices have pulled back from the $4,400 per ounce threshold, if the data comes in significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the "economic resilience" narrative, boost the U.S. dollar, and dampen rate-cut expectations; if it comes in much weaker than forecast, it could heighten recession fears and further lift precious metals and safe-haven sentiment.
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