Former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat: Yen intervention could resume at any time, and the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in September.
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Mitsuhiro Furusawa, a former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat and ex-deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that at current exchange rate levels, the yen is clearly too weak and is damaging Japan’s economy by pushing up import costs. He noted that if the yen returns to its level before last month’s coordinated intervention, Japan and the U.S. could conduct another joint foreign exchange market intervention at any time, with no fixed target level such as 160 or 162 yen. Furusawa added that intervention only buys time, and a more fundamental solution is for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to accelerate its pace of interest rate hikes. He forecasts the BOJ will raise interest rates in September, followed by another hike in December or January next year. He estimates the BOJ ultimately aims to lift rates to around 1.5% to 1.75%, a projection based on his estimate of the neutral interest rate, which ranges from 1.1% to 2.5%. If the economy maintains its growth momentum, further rate hikes could be possible in the fiscal year starting April 2027. (Jinshi)
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