QCP: Bitcoin’s upside momentum remains limited, with macro variables acting as a key constraint.

QCP Capital noted in a report that Bitcoin has rebounded from its weekly low of around $62,500 and is currently trading in a range near $64,000. What’s more notable about this rally is not the momentum itself, but the pressure the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 Bitcoin for approximately $105 million; meanwhile, reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110 million. Neither of these events caused Bitcoin’s price to sustain a drop below key levels. The options market also reflects similar calm sentiment: front-end implied volatility remains at the lower end of the recent range, and downside skew has eased, despite the still complex macro environment. U.S. manufacturing picked up in July, but labor market indicators softened. JOLTS job openings fell to 7.36 million, and ADP employment added only 44,000, making today’s U.S. jobs report the market’s focus. At the same time, uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude back above $83 per barrel. Japan remains another key liquidity variable: after joint interventions to support the yen, the Bank of Japan still holds roughly half of outstanding Japanese government bonds as domestic yields rise, and the impact of Japan’s funding conditions extends far beyond the foreign exchange market itself. For the crypto market, the key distinction remains: resilience has improved, but momentum is still limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets, and the timeline for U.S. digital asset legislation remain core variables to watch.