Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options with a total notional value exceeding $2.4 billion expire and settle today.

Bitcoin's daily chart "golden cross" only held briefly before failing again. On September 12, BTC briefly rose to $79,837, pushing the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) above the 200-day EMA, but later pulled back to around $77,438, with the 50-day EMA falling back below the 200-day EMA. This move coincided with a sharp rise in expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Latest data shows the U.S. core CPI month-over-month came in at 0.3%, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%; CME FedWatch data indicates the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points next week has climbed to 86.5% from roughly 69% following the CPI release. The market’s repricing of rate hikes put pressure on risk assets, leading Bitcoin to give up its earlier gains. However, Bitcoin’s medium-term trend has not fully turned bearish. The 4-hour timeframe’s 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, so the golden cross still holds; the daily Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 45, signaling the overall trend remains strong. Meanwhile, the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 43.3, with short-term momentum cooling significantly.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has secretly approved at least three insider trading investigations into Polymarket trades, targeting contracts related to Biden pardons, the Iran war, and Google-linked events. The investigative documents were obtained by WIRED via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Among these probes, CFTC Chair Michael Selig approved the investigation into Biden pardon-related contracts in May, after a trader earned over $300,000 in profits from the relevant market. That same month, the CFTC also greenlit an investigation into Iran war contracts, following reports that a group of suspicious accounts had reaped $2.4 million in profits with a roughly 98% win rate. In July, the CFTC launched an additional probe into Google-linked Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have traded using non-public information about Google’s 2025 search rankings. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation. It remains unclear whether the aforementioned accounts are linked to individuals previously under investigation. Polymarket stated it will refer the matter to law enforcement and cooperate with the probes. As prediction markets expand rapidly, U.S. regulators are significantly stepping up scrutiny of insider trading and market manipulation.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Huobi HTX’s net capital inflow exceeded $446 million in the past 24 hours and $438 million over the past seven days, with both metrics ranking first among global mainstream centralized exchanges (CEX).

According to Farside's monitoring, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted a net inflow of $216.4 million yesterday, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $13.2 million, marking their fourth consecutive trading day of net outflows.

After a key oil pipeline was attacked, Saudi Arabia announced the temporary shutdown of its 1,200-kilometer east-west oil pipeline. The pipeline connects major oil fields in eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea, serving as a key route for Saudi crude exports bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi Ministry of Energy described the shutdown as a "precautionary measure", with no timeline for resumption announced. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said the pipeline was hit by a drone attack from the Iraqi side, and that Saudi Arabia will not retaliate for now. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces have recently carried out repeated attacks on Saudi energy facilities and advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further raising shipping risks in the Red Sea. Oil markets have quickly priced in the supply risks. Brent crude closed at $104.56 per barrel on Friday, with a weekly gain of over 8%. Saudi Arabia’s crude exports via Yanbu Port stood at just around 2.5 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level since 2013. With alternative export routes blocked, Saudi Arabia’s crude supply capacity faces further downward pressure. As two major energy shipping routes—the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait—face risks simultaneously, markets are reassessing the likelihood of global crude supply disruptions.

Beating AI News Brief: James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research – the firm behind the "AI Doom Report" – has sold his company to semiconductor and AI research firm SemiAnalysis. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Van Geelen will temporarily remain as Citrini’s CEO and plans to launch a new fund. Citrini currently has around 260,000 subscribers on Substack. It rose to prominence in February this year after publishing the report "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis", which envisioned AI rapidly displacing white-collar jobs, sparking market discussions about AI’s impact on employment and the economy, and at one point significantly impacting software stocks. SemiAnalysis was founded by Dylan Patel in 2020 and has long focused on semiconductor and AI infrastructure research. Patel stated that the acquisition aims to expand research scale and explore new forms of investment research in the AI era. Van Geelen has not disclosed specific details about the new fund. The deal also means Citrini, after rapidly expanding its influence, will further integrate with SemiAnalysis’s semiconductor and AI research capabilities.