Analysis: Long-term holders’ holdings hit an all-time high, potentially signaling Bitcoin’s current cycle has bottomed out ahead of schedule.

Liquid Capital founder Yilihua wrote in an article that trading is no easy feat. Earlier, when he held a bullish stance, the market saw multiple pullbacks; after the price climbed to $86,000, he stuck to his expectation of a pullback, yet the market rebounded several times during this period, even touching $87,000. Over the past month, the price has repeatedly dipped to the $80,000-$81,000 range before quickly bouncing back to the key level of $84,000. He stressed that both rallies and pullbacks are non-linear, so one should not be fixated on trading at all times. Instead, he adheres to the principle of "expecting pullbacks but not shorting", patiently waiting for the optimal bottom-fishing opportunity. He also noted that he founded and manages three funds with distinct focuses: crypto investment, crypto trading, and AI technology. Among these, crypto trading is the most challenging, which he calls "a practice against human nature". He pointed out that it is worth considering whether investors will still have the confidence to bottom-fish amid the upcoming extreme panic. As for the future market, he regards the temporary underperformance of Buffett’s Google investment and Duan Yongping’s holding of POP MART as temporary setbacks. He believes AI will keep creating miracles, monetary expansion will not cease, and high-quality AI stocks and crypto assets remain his favored trend directions.

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng has issued an update on the exchange’s security incident, confirming the company will cover all stolen losses with its own capital, and has set aside over $6.34 billion in funds. Of that amount, $5 billion is held in the same assets as those affected, including USDC, USDT, BTC, ETH, and BNB; remaining required tokens are being acquired via market and over-the-counter (OTC) channels. Teng stressed that only Binance’s internal hot wallets were compromised, with customer funds untouched. The vast majority of user assets are stored in cold wallets, only transferred to hot wallets for withdrawal purposes. He explained that most of the company’s operating revenue is held in crypto assets, and its long-term holdings and reinvestments enable it to immediately cover such a large loss with its own funds. On the investigation, Teng noted the attack was not carried out by a single individual. Initial probes point to a compromised laptop, but additional breach points have since been uncovered. The attackers also used self-destruct mechanisms to destroy tools and traces, complicating tracking. He added that the attackers exploited EIP-7702 to obtain on-chain execution authorization for hot wallets, with the related delegation not subject to normal approval controls. Binance is currently rebuilding its withdrawal service, which will only be restored after rigorous testing. Teng said he aims to resume user withdrawals within 40 hours, by the Sunday deadline. Meanwhile, the company is conducting a comprehensive security review of endpoints, cloud environments, key management, and signature systems. For proof of reserves (PoR), Binance plans to release a full PoR report on Monday, and will provide preliminary data for public verification ahead of that. The firm is also collaborating with law enforcement agencies, blockchain intelligence companies, token issuers, and other exchanges to continue tracking and recovering stolen funds.

Several major companies at the core of the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom have seen sharp stock declines, leaving investors who participated in their large-scale stock offerings in a more difficult position. On Friday, stocks of Intel, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms fell. Their latest quarterly earnings missed expectations, pushing share prices below the levels at which investors bought in during their recent stock offerings over the past several months. The sell-off began on Wednesday when Alphabet released its earnings report, showing its search and other ad revenue fell short of forecasts; Intel then disclosed supply chain issues for its data center components, further stoking market concerns. Both firms have highlighted market doubts about the sustainability of massive AI investments. Markets were already struggling to absorb large-scale AI-related stock offerings, and are now assessing whether these huge investments can translate into long-term share price returns. The stock declines will further raise the difficulty for companies to raise needed capital, and have made the outlook for Anthropic’s IPO—whether it can match or exceed the record fundraising size of SpaceX’s earlier this year—far more uncertain.

Analysts at StoneX and TD Cowen note that Strategy’s preferred share financing structure has stabilized and liquidity has improved, creating conditions for the firm to resume increasing its Bitcoin holdings and raise its Bitcoin holdings per share. Both institutions maintained a Buy rating, with target prices of $435 and $260 respectively. As of the end of the third quarter, Strategy held $5.07 billion in U.S. assets, including $4.83 billion in cash reserves, sufficient to cover roughly 3.2 to 3.4 years of preferred share dividends and debt interest. The company also spent around $2 billion repurchasing STRC preferred shares, helping lift their price back to near the $100 par value. However, due to priorities of replenishing cash reserves and supporting preferred shares rather than expanding Bitcoin holdings, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings per share fell 3.7% year-to-date. Separately, shareholders of preferred shares STRC, STRF, STRK, and STRD have approved daily dividend accrual: STRC’s arrangement takes effect on November 1, while the other three classes will take effect on January 1 next year. Management stated the move is designed to reduce volatility, improve liquidity, and expand demand. TD Cowen added that broader sales channels and enhanced liquidity could ultimately boost the efficiency of Strategy’s "digital credit" product offerings.

Crypto trader Ansem stated in a post that the fact Bitcoin fell only 2% amid a $6 billion theft should not be directly viewed as a bullish signal. He argues that Bitcoin’s trading structure has changed significantly from years ago, and the market’s lack of an immediate selloff in response to the event does not mean the downtrend will not continue. Ansem noted that in 2017, Bitcoin was still the primary asset for retail crypto leveraged speculation, but between 2020 and 2021, retail traders took on higher risks by trading altcoins, with new participants on Uniswap showing limited interest in Bitcoin. After 2023, as altcoins on centralized exchanges underperformed, speculative activity shifted further on-chain, boosting the popularity of meme coins; now, stock perpetual contracts have further siphoned off traders who would otherwise have gone long on BTC with leverage. This shift has impacted BTC’s price performance, Ansem says. In 2017, Bitcoin typically rallied quickly after hitting new all-time highs, while in 2021 and parts of 2023–2025, it more often saw failed breakouts after minor new highs and months of narrow sideways consolidation. He cited the October 10 liquidation event as an example: BTC’s decline was limited compared to altcoins at the time, trading above $100,000 for weeks afterward, while altcoins suffered heavy losses in a single candlestick. In his view, this trend is tied to high-risk speculators no longer concentrating leveraged long positions on BTC. Ansem emphasized that current sellers may be more passive, and fewer speculators in the BTC market face liquidation risk than in the past, so the asset’s short-term resilience to declines cannot be taken as proof the downtrend has ended.

Intel (INTC.O)’s five-year credit default swap (CDS) spreads widened to a record high of 123.5 basis points, on track to log its largest single-day swing since October 2022.