Bitcoin currently has a $4.4 billion supply overhang, with weak institutional demand weighing on its rebound prospects.

Although Bitcoin has recently stabilized near $60,000, its rebound outlook remains dim. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin ETFs have sold off 71,600 BTC this month, worth over $4 billion, marking the largest single-month redemption in history. Meanwhile, enterprises and digital asset custodians have only added 7,500 BTC to their holdings. Combined with daily new mining supply, the net gap reaches roughly 77,000 BTC (valued at around $4.4 billion), creating a notable "supply glut". Against this backdrop, Strategy (MSTR), the largest Bitcoin-focused digital asset firm, announced a Bitcoin monetization plan on Monday, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin, primarily to build a $2.55 billion USD reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and interest expenses. Analysts note that if capital flows do not turn positive and institutional demand fails to recover, any price rebound is likely to be short-lived. The only factor currently supporting Bitcoin is the long USD positioning in the foreign exchange market. Elsewhere, UK regulators have cut the capital buffer requirement for stablecoin issuers from 2% to 1%; the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen to -0.90, its lowest level since late 2022, challenging the "carry trade" theory; and global oil prices are seeing their largest quarterly decline since 2020, with markets focusing on the progress of US-Iran talks.