Samson Mow asserts that Bitcoin has reached its bottom, as analysts’ views on the market outlook have grown increasingly divergent.

Data from prediction market platform Predict.fun indicates that the first knockout match of the 2026 Canada-Mexico-USA World Cup’s 32-team knockout stage is approaching. The clash between Canada and South Africa will kick off at 3 a.m. Beijing time today. Current predicted win probabilities stand at 58% for Canada (CAN), 16% for South Africa (RSA), and a 27% chance of a draw. The data shows that the market has given higher support to the Canadian national team’s overall strength ahead of the match.

According to an official announcement from Predict.fun, the knockout stage of the World Cup’s 32-team tournament has officially launched, with the platform simultaneously upgrading its Predict Cup event mechanism. For this knockout round, Predict.fun will open 11 prediction markets per match and boost Fan Points rewards. The official added that the ongoing event still has a prize pool of over $1.1 million up for grabs, with rewards disbursed immediately after each knockout match’s conclusion. Notably, the Canada vs. South Africa match is set to kick off in under 3 hours, with a direct $25,000 reward allocated for this fixture, giving users more frequent chances to participate and win. Predict.fun stated that as the knockout stage commences, the platform will incentivize users to actively join World Cup prediction markets and compete for subsequent prize pool rewards via more markets, higher point rewards, and a more frequent reward distribution system.

According to official announcements from Predict.fun, rewards for the World Cup group stage event are now available for collection, with the current prize pool totaling $840,000. The platform noted that users who participated and secured rewards during the group stage can now claim them via the platform. With the conclusion of the 32-team group stage, the number of World Cup-related markets on Predict.fun has risen from the initial 6 to 11, providing more trading and points-chasing opportunities for new participants. For the upcoming knockout stage, the platform will release over $1 million in additional event rewards, giving users ongoing opportunities to compete for leaderboard positions and split the subsequent prize pool.

South Korean investors’ margin lending for stock trading hits an all-time high: South Korea’s margin loans have reached a record of approximately $26 billion, doubling since the start of 2025. However, when measured as a share of South Korea’s free-float market capitalization, margin lending currently makes up only around 0.8% — the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic low. This is because the sharp rise in South Korea’s total stock market capitalization has far outpaced the growth of leverage. Meanwhile, during the recent market correction, the daily forced liquidation ratio surged to 4-5% of total outstanding margin loans, far exceeding the normal level of roughly 1%. This means that leveraged investors unable to meet margin call requirements are forcing brokers to liquidate 4-5% of all margin positions in a single day. Record leverage is exacerbating volatility in the South Korean market.

The Hyper Foundation announced it will provide approximately $10 million in grants to help developers affected by the phased shutdown of USDH offset migration costs. The grants are divided into two categories: migration grants for teams that have integrated USDH and are migrating related markets or deployments to USDC; and wind-down grants for teams that choose to terminate USDH-related operations instead of migrating, with amounts lower than equivalent migration grants. Grants for HIP-1 and HIP-3 are calculated based on auction deployment costs, while HyperEVM grants are determined by the amount of affected USDH locked. All grant recipients must commit to completing an orderly migration or wind-down by the end of July. Users can directly swap USDH for USDC on the HyperCore spot order book, or exchange it for free at a 1:1 ratio via the Across Protocol on HyperEVM. The Hyper Foundation thanked all developers who built real markets on USDH, users who supported USDH's growth, and Native Markets for its pioneering work in launching the protocol's native stablecoin. Thanks to the active collaboration of the team and community, the migration process is currently proceeding smoothly and orderly.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline is a "confidence collapse triggered by Strategy". The issue extends beyond Bitcoin’s price itself: concerns over Strategy’s financing model are spreading across the market. As the world’s largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy’s stocks and senior securities have become key metrics for traders to gauge Bitcoin market risk. Earlier, the company’s Bitcoin flywheel effect came under pressure, with its stock once trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings—meaning its years-long reliance on the "issuing stock at a premium to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases" model is now facing challenges. Novogratz bluntly noted that STRC (Strategy’s ticker) is trading weakly, and it should have held steady around $100. Currently, Strategy’s annual dividend obligations have risen to roughly $1.2 billion, and shrinking cash reserves have cut the dividend coverage period to just about 14 months. On the macro front, Bitcoin also faces pressure. Novogratz summed up the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin": hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening US dollar are suppressing demand for risk assets. Technically, the $59,000 to $60,000 range has become a critical support level for Bitcoin; a break below could open downside space to $45,000. Novogratz also admitted the current situation is complex, with an equal 50/50 probability of a rebound or deep correction. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the market’s fragile sentiment. Today, Strategy’s balance sheet health, STRC’s price performance, and cash position are no longer just company-level issues—they have evolved into a confidence signal for the entire Bitcoin market.