Jiang Zhuoer: This round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out in Q4 2026, with a target range of $42,000 to $44,000.
2 hours ago
BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer wrote in a post that Strategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) has fallen to 0.72, near the 0.7 low hit in May 2022 during the last bear market. Citing recent market sentiment events including STRC’s depegging, he noted that mNAV is now in the bottom zone of this cycle. mNAV usually bottoms roughly six months before Bitcoin’s price. Using the "four-year cycle" and volatility decay model, Jiang projected that this Bitcoin bear market will likely bottom between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. He added that his recent medium-short term strategy remains focused on selling spot assets and holding short positions, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.
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