Micron's conference call delivers strong signals: the memory shortage will continue until 2028, and AI long-term contracts are rewriting the industry cycle narrative.

Micron Technology (MU) revealed in its early-morning earnings call that its strategic customer agreements rose from 1 to 16 sequentially, covering roughly 20% of its DRAM shipments and around one-third of its NAND shipments. Of these deals, 14 calculated at minimum contract prices represent a cumulative remaining revenue of approximately $100 billion. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said these agreements will "fundamentally transform" the company’s business model. The key takeaway for the market is that Micron is being repositioned from a highly cyclical memory stock to an AI infrastructure provider with far greater revenue visibility. During the call, Micron disclosed it expects industry tightness to persist beyond 2027, and even as supply gradually improves in 2028, there is no clear timeline for supply to catch up with demand. Management attributed this gap to the large scale, complexity, and long lead times of new semiconductor fab construction. CFO Mark Murphy noted that DRAM revenue jumped 343% year-over-year to $31.3 billion, while NAND revenue surged 361% YoY to $9.9 billion. DRAM prices rose in the low-60% range, and NAND prices increased in the mid-80% range. He explained that the quarter’s earnings, which handily beat market expectations, were driven more by pricing power and supply-demand imbalances rather than just shipment volume. The company forecasts capital expenditure of roughly $10 billion this quarter, and $27 billion for full fiscal 2026. Fiscal 2027 quarterly capex will exceed the FY2026 fourth quarter level, with more than half allocated to cleanroom construction. However, the CFO also stated that free cash flow for the current quarter is expected to continue rising sharply. Overall, the call’s messaging sent three key signals to the market: persistent memory shortages, customer willingness to sign long-term agreements, and further upside for prices. This drove Micron’s (MU) shares to surge nearly 16% in U.S. post-market trading.