Greeks.live: Rising market risk aversion may trigger sudden price movements in Bitcoin around the quarterly expiry period

U.S. President Donald Trump has refused to sign a bill containing a four-year central bank digital currency (CBDC) ban. The ban was included in a bipartisan housing affordability bill, which had been scheduled for a Wednesday signing ceremony. Trump posted on Truth Social that the event is "canceled with immediate effect" until Congress passes what he calls the "urgently needed" Save America Act. Trump’s suspension of the housing bill’s signing could deal a blow to the bipartisan-backed housing legislation and also impact the anti-CBDC camp. While the U.S. is not prepared to issue a CBDC in the near term, the crypto industry has long supported the four-year digital dollar ban in the bill, which runs through the end of 2030. Republicans argue that a digital dollar managed by the Federal Reserve could be used to monitor citizens’ finances. Last year, Trump also signed an executive order barring the U.S. from advancing a CBDC, stating that such a currency could threaten financial system stability, personal privacy, and U.S. sovereignty. Reports also note that if Trump delays congressional proceedings over this dispute, it could affect the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Clarity Act), a key priority for the crypto industry. The Senate has only about five weeks left before its summer recess, and further major delays would make it nearly impossible for the bill to become law in 2026.

Driven by the World Cup, Polymarket's "Soccer" category saw trading volume exceed $2 billion in the first 10 days after the tournament kicked off, a 300% increase from the prior 10-day period. Meanwhile, the category's average daily trading volume rose from $53 million in the month before the World Cup to roughly $220 million so far during the event. Kalshi has also benefited from the World Cup hype. Data shows that Kalshi's aggregate open interest hit $1.16 billion last Thursday, a new all-time high and the first time the platform's open interest has crossed the $1 billion threshold. Year-to-date, Kalshi's open interest has grown by 350%. However, Polymarket's open interest has remained relatively stable during the World Cup; its open interest for its CFTC-regulated U.S. business has only seen modest growth, failing to reach its April 2026 high. In contrast, Kalshi's open interest has grown faster than its trading volume, indicating its users hold positions for longer periods and are starting to take larger directional bets, rather than just engaging in short-term trading.

According to Bitget data, US stocks extended their gains today: the Nasdaq rose 0.81%, the S&P 500 gained 0.76%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.01%.

Bitcoin has fallen below the lower range of the long-popular valuation model, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, marking only the second time in history it has dipped into the purple zone labeled "Bitcoin is Dead" in the original framework. Developed by Reddit user Azop in 2014, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart uses logarithmic growth curves to track Bitcoin’s long-term price trends, with distinct color zones corresponding to different market sentiment phases. Some Bitcoin holders view the current plunge into this zone as a key buying opportunity, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s 2022 drop to around $15,000, which later formed the cycle’s bottom. However, analysts are divided on this signal. Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said the price’s first break below a range that has held for over a decade signals a structural shift in the model. He does not believe this means Bitcoin is dead; instead, he argues the Rainbow Chart has become invalid. Emad Shahin, COO of Ethra, noted that the Rainbow Chart acts more as a sentiment indicator than a predictive tool. Mark Zalan, CEO of GoMining, added that the "Bitcoin is Dead" zone does not actually mean Bitcoin is defunct—historically, it typically reflects extreme panic and undervaluation, often followed by a recovery. As institutional investors, ETF flows, derivatives activity, and macro factors carry increasing weight in Bitcoin pricing, the validity of relying solely on historical valuation models is waning. Lee stated that Bitcoin’s current position at the Rainbow Chart’s lower levels points to weak market sentiment, but does not guarantee another sharp new low. If risk appetite deteriorates further, Bitcoin still cannot rule out a drop to the $50,000 range.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted, stating he believes Micron (MU)’s earnings report may beat expectations, driving its stock to a new high, which could mark the peak of the “storage rally” in the coming months. The Magnificent Seven tech giants have weakened sharply recently, pulling back from their highs, while the storage and semiconductor sectors had been propping up the market up to now. Ansem noted his earlier incorrect bullish call on SpaceX ahead of its first major share unlock, which he views as another sign of retail investor fatigue in the market. If SpaceX continues to trade below its $150 opening price, he will cut his related positions. On the macro front, Ansem said interest rate and inflation concerns are real, but he views Fed official Kevin Warsh’s cancellation of forward guidance as a move to let the Federal Reserve respond based on market activity rather than pre-emptively calming markets. If inflation shocks from the Strait of Hormuz prove temporary and the market weakens concurrently, the Fed may pivot, creating a window for market cooling from now until the next Fed meeting at the end of July. On crypto, Ansem noted the crypto market has underperformed over the past two years but is currently in a favorable position. If open-source AI and decentralized inference become popular narratives, Solana could be one of the best trades over the next 12 months. For Bitcoin, Ansem said concerns related to MicroStrategy (MSTR) are legitimate, and a paired trade of going long BTC and shorting MSTR looks attractive. Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, near its 2021 all-time high and 200-week moving average. If it holds above $60,000 and MSTR breaks below its support level, that would be a strong signal of a long-term bottom formation. Overall, Ansem believes the market may rise first today, then sell off in early Q3, and investors may have opportunities to buy BTC near $60,000 and SOL near $60, which he views as bear market lows.

According to CNBC, Tarek Mansour, CEO of prediction market platform Kalshi, confirmed the company is in the early stages of potential IPO planning, but will not go public in 2026. Mansour noted it is reasonable to start considering an IPO given Kalshi’s current financial standing and growth rate. He said: "A company with our financial position and growth trajectory will have these discussions. People will start asking the question. We’re basically thinking about this, but obviously don’t have answers yet." Earlier, The Information reported that Kalshi was in early discussions about a potential IPO, with a possible listing timeline of late 2027 or 2028. Mansour did not provide a more specific timeline on Wednesday, only stating that an IPO will not occur in 2026. Kalshi has grown rapidly over the past year. At the end of June 2025, the company was valued at $2 billion; in May this year, Kalshi announced the completion of its Series F financing round, lifting its valuation to $22 billion. Prediction market observers point out that one factor driving the valuation increase is market opportunities brought by institutional traders. While retail users have fueled Kalshi’s growth, the company has begun adjusting its messaging and product development direction to boost its appeal to Wall Street. Regarding potential insider trading issues in prediction markets, Mansour said Kalshi has taken measures to enhance market integrity, including strengthening efforts to identify traders’ employers and enforcing KYC verification requirements. Kalshi has filed cases against individuals to show its efforts to curb insider trading concerns are working. Building market integrity for prediction market platforms is "a difficult problem, but not an impossible one."