JPMorgan: Bitcoin Mining Industry Increasingly Sensitive to Price Swings, More Miners Approaching Breakeven Point

On June 22, Morgan Stanley’s latest report noted that as more Bitcoin miners approach their breakeven points, the Bitcoin mining network is growing more sensitive to price swings, with both hashrate and mining difficulty responding more sharply to fluctuations. The bank’s analysis finds that the six-month “elasticity coefficient” for mining difficulty relative to Bitcoin price changes has climbed to 0.62, meaning hashrate is reacting more quickly to market shifts. Analysts added that Bitcoin has traded below production costs for five straight months, with roughly 20% of miners currently operating at a loss. Facing profit pressure, publicly listed mining firms have ramped up their Bitcoin selling: first-quarter sales alone topped 32,000 BTC, surpassing the full-year total for 2025. As higher-cost mining rigs go offline, network hashrate has fallen, prompting an adjustment to mining difficulty. Morgan Stanley forecasts that as long as Bitcoin remains below its roughly $78,000 production cost, the mining sector’s high sensitivity to price swings will persist. At the same time, some mining companies are pivoting to artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing businesses to secure more stable revenue streams.