Analysis: Binance Market Sentiment Bearish as Retail Investors Buy the Dip, Bitcoin's Future Direction Depends on Short Squeeze and Whale Games

Tether released its third-quarter 2026 financial report, posting a net operating profit of $1.5 billion, roughly flat with the previous quarter. Cumulative net operating profit for the first three quarters reached $4.5 billion, with its main revenue sources remaining U.S. short-term Treasury bonds and reverse repurchase agreements. As of September 30, Tether’s excess reserves rose to approximately $7.95 billion, nearly doubling from $4.1 billion at the end of Q2, an increase of about $3.8 billion. Total reserve assets at the end of the quarter stood at around $191.5 billion, with direct and indirect holdings of U.S. short-term Treasury bonds totaling $132.4 billion, and most reserves allocated to highly liquid, short-dated instruments. Tether noted that the total issuance of USDT remained broadly stable at $184 billion in the first three quarters of 2026. CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the company’s reserve strategy aims to ensure liquidity to meet redemption demands during periods of market and financial system stress, while enhancing financial strength through excess reserves.

Federal Reserve official Musalem said the Fed will need to raise interest rates again "soon". Current monetary policy remains accommodative, and overall financial conditions are still loose. Inflation is still too high and is unlikely to ease without action from the Federal Reserve.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday that artificial intelligence (AI) not only affects long-term economic prospects but is also closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s medium- and short-term monetary policy decisions. Daly noted that the Fed needs to understand how technological advances impact U.S. economic growth, productivity, and the labor market to assess its dual mandate goals: inflation, price stability, and maximum employment.

CZ responded in a post to discussions about the scale of Binance’s hack and its impact on Bitcoin (BTC) prices, noting that the $6.3 billion theft is the largest in U.S. dollar terms but not by BTC quantity. He cited the Mt. Gox incident, which involved 650,000 BTC—more than 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply at the time—arguing that market impact cannot be assessed solely by dollar amounts. CZ added that factors like the number of affected users and the share of their assets that were impacted must also be considered. According to him, both the Mt. Gox and FTX incidents affected nearly all users and their assets. He stressed that a more critical question is who will ultimately bear the losses, whether the platform can fully cover them, and avoiding passing the burden to users. CZ stated that the event remains a major disaster for the crypto industry, Binance, and himself, but that the exchange can weather the shock. He emphasized: “The most important thing is that we protect users.”

According to CNBC, Michael Selig, chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said in an interview while discussing the Binance hack incident that he hopes to provide a federal-level option for such trading platforms to register with the CFTC.

Binance CEO He Yi said the recent hack involved approximately $6.3 billion in assets, and with assistance from industry partners, around $3 billion in assets has been frozen. She thanked all industry parties for their support, and stated that Binance will use its own corporate funds to cover the stolen assets, ensuring full parity with user funds. Regarding withdrawal arrangements, He Yi noted that the withdrawal suspension has lasted nearly a day, and is expected to resume within the next 42 hours. The pause was implemented to protect remaining assets; the team is currently rebuilding the security environment, wallet configurations, and conducting security reviews. Withdrawals will only be re-opened once the environment is confirmed secure and poses no risk to user assets. He Yi clarified that Binance’s daily revenue and held assets are mostly in cryptocurrencies, which align with most of the currencies involved in the stolen funds. Only a small portion of assets needs to be purchased via on-exchange or over-the-counter (OTC) channels, meaning it is not necessary to deploy the full $6 billion+ to repurchase coins in the market. On reserve verification, Binance will update its Proof of Reserves (PoR) in the coming days for users to verify their own assets. Regarding the investigation, He Yi said that based on current reviews from security and technical teams, the incident is a complex multi-vector attack. Future operations will be more cautious. Binance will release a detailed technical security audit report in the future, and invite industry participants to jointly build security environments and standards. She also stated that Binance will not abandon tracking the attackers, will collaborate with global law enforcement agencies to continue tracing the attack team and stolen funds, and will take further actions in security investment and combating hacking.