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Analyst: Dollar Plunge Fuels Bitcoin Bull Run, but Other Indicators Raise Concerns

2025.03.10 13:08:30

On March 10th, Jamie Coutts, a crypto analyst at Real Vision, stated that a weakening dollar might push Bitcoin to higher levels. Nevertheless, there are two crucial indicators that could cause concerns in the short term. "Even though the dollar has plummeted, my framework is gradually becoming more bullish. However, two indicators still set off alarm bells: the US Treasury Bond Volatility (MOVE Index) and corporate bond spreads." Coutts characterized Bitcoin as a "game" among various central banks. Despite these worrying indicators, an overall "cautiously bullish" outlook still exists. The MOVE Index is an indicator reflecting the expected volatility in the US Treasury bond market. Coutts pointed out that although the MOVE Index is currently stable, it is on an upward trend. An increase in Treasury bond volatility could lead to more tightened liquidity. Meanwhile, corporate bond spreads have been widening for three consecutive weeks. Reversals in significant corporate bond spreads usually coincide with the peaks of the Bitcoin price. Coutts concluded that overall, these indicators give a negative signal for Bitcoin. "However, the devaluation of the dollar - one of the most significant monthly devaluations in the past 12 years - still remains a key driver in my framework."
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