Grayscale: On-chain Metrics Show Bitcoin Is Undervalued, But Has Not Yet Reached Previous Cycle Lows

June 10 – According to Grayscale Research’s latest "Is Bitcoin Cheap Yet?" report from director Zach Pandl, Bitcoin has dropped below $60,000 to hit a new cycle low. A comprehensive analysis of various on-chain valuation metrics shows the cryptocurrency is currently undervalued, though its valuation appeal isn’t as strong as it was at previous cycle bottoms—like right after the FTX collapse. The report’s combined valuation model draws on three on-chain indicators: NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), Price/CVDD, and Market Cap/Thermo Cap. It finds Bitcoin is trading significantly below long-term average levels. Grayscale also notes this bear market could be milder than past cycles, thanks to factors including a more moderate rise in the prior bull run, plus market structure improvements from spot ETF launches, wealth management platform allocations, and growing institutional adoption. Looking ahead, Grayscale advises investors to watch two short-term catalysts: progress on the U.S. Senate’s "CLARITY Act" and whether high-leverage Bitcoin holders can stabilize their balance sheets. Institutions remain optimistic the CLARITY Act will pass eventually, but there’s still substantial market uncertainty around its outcome. This price level offers a solid dollar-cost averaging (DCA) opportunity for long-term investors, while short-term traders may hold off until there’s clearer movement on the CLARITY Act before acting.