Viewpoint: The main reason for the Bitcoin price drop is the rising inflation, not concerns about the Strategy's sell-off

June 8 — Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $60,000 mark isn’t driven by MicroStrategy (the top corporate Bitcoin holder) selling its holdings, but rather institutional investors pulling funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs amid renewed inflation concerns, according to Markus Thielen, founder of research firm 10x Research. Since May 12, when hotter-than-expected U.S. April CPI data was released, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $5.4 billion in net outflows, Thielen pointed out. Over the same period, MicroStrategy — one of the few major buyers in the crypto space — added around $2 billion worth of Bitcoin to its holdings. “The market misread what’s driving this recent selloff; the issue isn’t with MicroStrategy,” he emphasized. 10x Research projects U.S. May CPI year-over-year growth will hit 4.3%, above the market’s consensus forecast of 4.2%. If the inflation data released this Wednesday comes in above 4%, it could strengthen fears the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high or even implement another hike, further pressuring risk assets like crypto. While Bitcoin is technically in oversold territory in the short term, a rebound isn’t off the table. However, such an upward move would likely struggle to hold if inflation continues to surprise on the upside. Adding to the bearish signals: stablecoin outflows hit roughly $1.7 billion last week, bringing total outflows over the past month to $5.5 billion, while open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen significantly — a sign capital is still exiting the crypto market. Thielen stressed that institutional fund flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain the most important indicator for predicting the crypto market’s future. “What drives Bitcoin’s price is institutional ETF capital flows, not market narratives,” he said.