Viewpoint: The greatest threat of quantum computing is not against Bitcoin private keys; the financial system is facing a "gather first, decrypt later" risk

May 30 — Andrew Gault, founding partner of deep-tech investment firm 7percent Ventures and CEO of networking company ZeroTier, says the market is far too focused on quantum computing’s threat to Bitcoin wallet private keys, while overlooking a more imminent risk: encrypted communications data currently being transmitted between financial institutions. Gault points out attackers are employing a “collect now, decrypt later” strategy, mass-storing encrypted data such as interbank communications, payment authentication records, and digital signatures — waiting for future quantum computers with sufficient power to decode them. He argues the real danger lies not in static stored data, but in the daily authentication and signature info flowing between crypto exchanges, custodians, cross-chain bridges, and financial firms. In March, Google’s Quantum AI team released a study stating a fully capable future quantum computer could derive Bitcoin private keys from public keys in roughly 9 minutes, sparking market concerns over the ~6.9 million Bitcoin public keys that are publicly exposed. But Gault maintains the more pressing issue is the network data that’s already being hoarded. Google’s security team has shifted its focus to digital signatures and identity authentication systems, with plans to complete a full post-quantum cryptography migration by 2029. The company notes this “collect now, decrypt later” attack has become a real, active threat. Additionally, a February Citigroup study estimates that if quantum computing breached the encryption protecting large U.S. banks’ access to the Fedwire payment system, it could cause an economic impact of $20 trillion to $33 trillion — equal to a 10% to 17% drop in U.S. real GDP. Reports indicate Ethereum has launched a coordinated post-quantum migration plan, but the Bitcoin network, as well as major crypto exchanges and custodians, have not publicly committed to similar upgrades for their signature infrastructure. Analysts believe that as quantum computing technology advances, the crypto industry will face growing pressure for a post-quantum security overhaul in the years ahead.