Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 This Year" Drops to 37%

May 24: Per Onchain Lens monitoring, the "BTC OG Insider Whale" wallet has expanded its HYPE holdings to 144,183 tokens, valued at approximately $9.03 million. The wallet currently maintains a 5x leveraged long position on BTC and a 3x leveraged short position on ZEC, incurring total unrealized losses exceeding $1.8 million.

May 24, Michael Saylor posted: "This week, we bought bonds, not Bitcoin. The 'Bitcoin vacuum cleaner' BitVac is recharging."

On May 24th, Adam, an analyst with Greek.live, took to social media to state that Bitcoin (BTC) staged a V-shaped rebound over the weekend, driven primarily by developments related to U.S.-Iran tensions. He noted that the crypto may still see some additional upside momentum following the opening of the U.S. stock market. From the BTC options standpoint, gamma constraints have weakened after this week’s option expiry. The $78,500 level remains the key pain point and a critical battleground between bulls and bears. If BTC can hold the $77,000–$78,000 range, it will likely maintain a sideways-to-slightly-bullish trend. A high-volume breakout above $80,000 would likely see call options drive the market higher once again. Current short-term implied volatility (IV) remains low, despite strong market volatility expectations. To control costs, strategies like call spreads, put spreads, or waiting to add positions after BTC breaks above $80,000 or falls below $77,000 are more appropriate.

May 24 — Ethereum treasury firm BitMine (BMNR) currently holds 5.28 million Ether (ETH), making up roughly 4.37% of the total ETH supply. With ETH having plunged more than 57% from its October 2025 peak, BitMine’s unrealized losses have swelled to around $7.35 billion. BitMine rolled out its Ether treasury strategy in July 2025, and has been steadily accumulating ETH amid the market downturn. The company’s average cost basis for its holdings sits at roughly $3,513 per ETH. Chairman Tom Lee has previously stated that ETH has historically seen sharp V-shaped rebounds after significant pullbacks, framing the current decline as a long-term buying opportunity. However, analysts caution that ETH is forming a bearish “rising wedge” technical pattern. If the coin breaks below its key support level, it could tumble to roughly $1,600 — a roughly 25% drop from current levels. Such a move would expand BitMine’s unrealized losses to over $10 billion, per estimates. Additional headwinds facing ET

May 24 — President Trump took to Twitter to denounce the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal as “one of the worst deals in American history,” asserting it gave Iran a direct pathway to developing nuclear weapons. The president noted the current Iran nuclear deal being negotiated under the Trump administration is “completely the opposite.” He said talks are progressing in an orderly, constructive manner, and advised U.S. negotiators not to rush into an agreement, stating “time is on America’s side.” Trump added that U.S. sanctions on Iran will remain fully in effect until a final agreement is reached, certified, and signed. He underscored the need for patience, noting “both sides must exercise patience, do things right, and not make any mistakes.” Further, Trump said relations between the U.S. and Iran are becoming “more professional and productive,” while stressing Iran must understand it cannot develop or acquire nuclear weapons. He also thanked Middle Eastern countries for their

May 24th: Security researchers are warning that AI is accelerating quantum computing’s development—and could pose an early threat to the modern encryption systems powering networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden stated, “The future security landscape will be completely different. The combination of quantum computing and AI will make all the security approaches we’ve used in the past unreliable.” The report notes AI has been used to optimize key technical bottlenecks such as quantum error correction, which could cut down on the actual time to bring functional quantum computers to life. NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin also pointed out AI is speeding up scientific progress, adding, “We might even build the next generation of quantum computers with AI’s help.” Researchers are also worried about a growing “collect first, decrypt later” strategy: some governments or institutions are preemptively hoarding encrypted data now, waiting for future mature quantum