CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's Current Trend Could Mirror the Bear Market Phase in March 2022

On May 21, CryptoQuant’s Research Lead Julio Moreno stated that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is mirroring the bear market pattern seen in March 2022. BTC recently rallied to nearly $82,400—approaching its 200-day moving average (MA)—before hitting resistance and falling back to roughly $76,000. Moreno noted that back in March 2022, Bitcoin also bounced about 43% from a low to test the 200-day MA, then reversed into a downtrend. This cycle, since the April 2026 low, BTC has risen ~37% and run into the same key resistance level. During bear markets, the 200-day MA has long served as a line in the sand between short-lived rebound rallies and sustained downtrend continuation. If price fails to break this level convincingly, it often signals the bear market structure remains firmly intact—one of the most prominent technical bearish indicators. Compounding that, Bitcoin demand has tipped negative again: The perpetual contract speculative demand that fueled gains from April to May slowed sharply after Bitcoin crossed above $82,000, with traders closing leveraged long positions en masse and spot demand shrinking alongside. Meanwhile, Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index stayed negative through this entire rebound and subsequent pullback, meaning U.S. institutional and retail funds haven’t materially returned to the market. Historically, sustained Bitcoin bull markets have correlated with a positive shift in the Coinbase premium. CryptoQuant’s Bull Market Sentiment Index dropped from 40 to 20, landing in the "extremely bearish" territory—matching levels seen when BTC fell to $60,000–$66,000 in February and March 2026. Historical data shows that when this index sits in the 0–20 range, the market typically faces further drops or extended consolidation. Moreno added that if Bitcoin continues pulling back, around $70,000 will act as a critical support level—dubbed the "trader on-chain realized price." This level previously served as key support or resistance during bear market rebounds in October 2025 and January 2026. When price falls to this zone, most traders’ unrealized gains will be near zero or even negative, easing selling pressure, allowing demand to return, and helping stabilize the market.