Analysis: Bitcoin Touches 200-day Moving Average Resistance Before Reversing, Bearish Trend Still Intact

May 21st: CryptoQuant analysts noted Bitcoin reversed course after hitting resistance at its 200-day moving average, with its current trajectory mirroring the peak seen in March 2022. Back then, Bitcoin rallied 43% before hitting the 200-day moving average, then resumed its downtrend. Now that Bitcoin has broken above $80,000, overall demand has shifted into contraction mode. Speculative demand in perpetual futures flipped sharply; spot demand is shrinking at a faster pace; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have also shifted to weekly net selling; and 30-day demand growth has dropped to a near-one-month low. The lack of demand from U.S. investors has further amplified bearish sentiment. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium remained negative throughout the entire recent rally and pullback period, signaling U.S. institutional and retail buyers are still in a risk-off stance. The bull market score has fallen from 40 to 20, entering an extremely bearish territory—consistent with the deep bear market readings recorded when Bitcoin fell to $60,000–$66,000 between February and March 2026. If the pullback continues, $70,000 will become a key support level, a threshold that has historically served as a critical support/resistance boundary during bear markets.