CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April surge was mainly driven by 'speculation,' with a risk of a pullback

On May 3, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno noted in a report: "Perpetual futures contract demand was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price gains in April, while apparent spot demand continued to shrink. Historically, this pattern has emerged in bear markets—and uptrends tied to it often struggle to hold." Moreno added that the divergence between surging futures demand and fading spot demand is among the clearest on-chain signals, indicating the rally is far more speculative than rooted in structural growth. He emphasized the price jump is fueled primarily by leverage, not fresh Bitcoin capital inflows. Moreno also warned: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the underpinnings to sustain a price rally. When futures positions begin unwinding, a price pullback typically follows as a correction." CryptoQuant noted the current perpetual futures-driven demand structure mirrors that of the early 2022 bear market. While this doesn’t guarantee the same outcome now, the setup carries "significant downside risks."