Bitcoin Rebounds but Options Market Remains Cautious: May Break Above $84,000 Probability Only 25%

**May 2 Update: Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $78k, But Derivatives Skeptical of $84k Upside** Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 on Tuesday as overall market risk sentiment improved—following the S&P 500’s fresh all-time high on Friday. Though BTC is up 15% in the past 30 days, the options market is pricing in only a 25% chance it hits $84,000 by month’s end. Derivatives traders remain skeptical of further upside, but institutional spot demand stays strong. For the BTC call option with a strike price of $84,000 expiring May 29, the cost is 0.0136 BTC (roughly $1,063). With 27 days left until expiry, this suggests a 25% chance BTC will rise 8% by the end of May. Put options have traded at a premium over the past month, signaling increased demand for downside protection. Weak demand for leveraged call positions is partly due to BTC’s 12% year-to-date (YTD) drop. While derivatives traders doubt BTC will hit $84,000, the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF tells a different story. It saw net inflows of $1.3 billion in March and another $2 billion in April—pushing total assets under management (AUM) past $100 billion, a key proxy for institutional demand. Additionally, several public firms have sharply increased their Bitcoin holdings in the last 30 days: Strategy added 56,235 BTC, and Metaplanet added 5,075 BTC. Their combined holdings now exceed the equivalent of Bitcoin’s mining output for the next five months, cutting potential selling pressure. Weak call option demand doesn’t rule out BTC hitting $84,000 or more by May 29. As long as institutional buying remains robust, the bullish momentum should continue.