Historical patterns show that Bitcoin often faces a several-month correction after a new chair takes office, and the market is watching whether Powell can break the "curse."

May 1 With Kevin Warsh expected to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair next month, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin typically sees a few months of price correction after each new Fed chair takes office—followed by the start of a "true bull run." The market is closely watching whether this trend will hold, or if another dip is imminent. Meanwhile, the macro environment is sending mixed signals: former President Trump has already begun pushing for rate cuts. In an interview, Trump noted he’d be disappointed if Warsh doesn’t cut rates at the Fed’s first policy meeting under his tenure in June. Markets widely expect the Fed’s final meeting under Powell (this Wednesday) to leave rates unchanged. James Lavish, partner at Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, pointed out the Fed has added roughly $200 billion in U.S. Treasuries to its holdings over the past few months—signaling the official end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the start of "lightweight QE," a potential catalyst for risk assets. That said, Warsh himself has criticized the Fed’s 2021-2022 decision to keep rates low as a "fatal policy mistake" and holds a skeptical view of balance sheet expansion, highlighting internal policy contradictions. Analysts note Bitcoin and stocks may face short-term volatility, but the shifting liquidity landscape could lay the groundwork for the next market trend.