Bitcoin Longs Eager for Reentry Above $80,000, Recent Macro Data Does Not Strongly Support Bullish Sentiment

April 28th Bitcoin slipped from above $79k this week to $76,500, stalling its rebound from late March’s dip below $65k. Traders eyeing a quick return to upside momentum should note recent economic data doesn’t back a major bullish push. Top of the list: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which hit a record low 49.8 in April—driven mainly by Iran conflict-linked inflation pressures. Inflation expectations also spiked: the 1-year gauge jumped to 4.8% (from 3.8% in March), while 5-10 year expectations hit 3.5%—the highest since October 2025. Inflation expectations risk becoming self-fulfilling—something the Fed and other central banks watch closely to anchor. The sharp jump could crimp the Fed’s ability to signal near-term rate cuts or liquidity easing, as more stimulus risks amplifying inflation. That hawkish tilt may cap BTC and other risk assets’ upside or slow gains. Bitfinex analyst: “Long-term inflation expectations are a more critical risk for the Fed—they’re the key variable in judging if expectations are unanchored. A month’s big shift raises the bar for near-term easing, even if the real economy weakens slightly.” Fed seen holding its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% Wednesday. Traders are also pricing in a potential June hike from the Bank of Japan. BRN’s Timothy Misir (research director) emailed: “Current sentiment rules out a rate hike this month. Bets show Eurozone/UK may get 2+ hikes by year-end; June hikes are almost fully priced. Lack of clear data is the main barrier to sound decisions.” In crypto: Sustained ETF inflows are key to holding spot BTC support during pullbacks.