Arthur Hayes: Uncertain if Bitcoin Will Drop Below $70,000, Will Buy the Dip Each Time

On March 4th, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, posted a message saying, "Currently, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market are the only truly global free markets in the world. The price of Bitcoin provides a real-time signal to the world about the state of fiat liquidity. Just before the Trump midterm elections, Bitcoin reached a high of $110,000, and then during a significant price drop, it touched a low of $78,000, a decline of approximately 30%. Bitcoin is shouting: a liquidity crisis is imminent, even though the U.S. stock market index remains close to all-time highs. I believe in Bitcoin's signal, so I think the U.S. stock market is on the verge of a severe pullback due to recession concerns." "If Bitcoin leads the market in the downward direction, it will also play a similar role in the upward direction. Given the massive embedded leverage in the system that turns small financial disturbances into full-blown panics, if my prediction is roughly correct, we won't have to wait long for the Fed to take action. Bitcoin will bottom out first and then start to rise, while the dirty fiat financial system (led by U.S. equities) will catch up and be in distress." "I firmly believe that we are still in a bull market cycle. Therefore, the worst-case scenario is that Bitcoin's bottom will return to the previous cycle's all-time high of $70,000. I'm not sure if it will fall to that level. A positive indicator of U.S. dollar liquidity is that the balance of the U.S. Treasury General Account is decreasing, which is equivalent to liquidity injection. Given my confidence in Trump as a certain type of financier and his ultimate goal assumptions, Maelstrom increased the risk in Bitcoin trading in the range of $80,000 to $90,000. If this is indeed a 'dead cat bounce,' I expect to have another opportunity at the $80,000 low. If the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 retraces 20% to 30% from their all-time highs and a major financial institution faces bankruptcy risk, we may experience a synchronized global market downturn. That means all risk assets will suffer together, and Bitcoin may once again drop below $80,000, even falling to $70,000. Whatever happens, we will cautiously buy the dip during the decline, not using leverage, and wait for the final financial earthquake in the global market (especially the U.S.), which will bring Bitcoin to $1,000,000 or higher." Stay in your lane and buy Bitcoin.