US-Iran Reconciliation Process Exceeds Expectations, Bitcoin Revisits $77K, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Hit New Highs

April 18 U.S.-Iran reconciliation efforts saw better-than-expected progress overnight and into Thursday, as Iran announced the "full opening" of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Former President Trump prominently declared a "final agreement will be reached within a day or two," adding Iran has agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program and will not receive any frozen funds. ### Market Reaction - Bitcoin rebounded to $77,000 - U.S. stock indices hit record highs - Oil prices plunged over 11% - Rate cut expectations rose ### Conflicting Signal from Iran Iran’s Islamic Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pushed back early Thursday, labeling seven of Trump’s prior social media statements "all untrue." He noted the U.S. has failed to win wars with lies and will gain nothing from negotiations, emphasizing the Strait of Hormuz will not stay open if the U.S. continues blocking Iranian ports. Ghalibaf also stated Iran will never relinquish control of the strait and Trump’s plan to "destroy Iranian civilization" has failed. ### Bloomberg Clarification Per Bloomberg, the "open status" Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi referenced is an existing arrangement requiring commercial vessels to coordinate with Iran before passage—revealing a sharp gap from the "complete freedom of passage" the market initially interpreted. ### Key Takeaway While Trump stoked market risk sentiment over the weekend, the U.S.-Iran situation’s subsequent developments still demand close attention. One certainty: the U.S.-Iran "two-person show" will persist until a formal negotiation agreement is finalized.