Wintermute: Ceasefire Transaction Is Dead, Market Resumes Upgrade Trend, Strait Confirmation Reopening Could Propel Bitcoin Above $75,000

April 14th — Wintermute noted in a post that markets went through two distinct phases last week: powered by ceasefire hopes in the first half, the Nasdaq rose 4.5%, Bitcoin climbed 2.6%, and the VIX dropped below 20. Over the weekend, the Islamabad talks collapsed, the U.S. announced a full naval blockade of Iranian ports, Brent crude surged 8% in a single session to re-enter $103+, and risk assets pared earlier gains. On the macro front: - U.S. March CPI climbed 3.3% year-over-year, while core CPI rose 2.6% — slightly below forecasts. Markets view this as an isolated energy shock rather than broad-based inflation. - Asian markets edged lower overnight, with Nasdaq futures holding steady. Markets are reacting less sharply to each news item, either pricing in the worst-case scenario or growing complacent. On the crypto front: - Bitcoin finished last week up 2.6% but didn’t lead gains, trading in a $65k-$73k range for over two months. - Bitcoin spot ETFs posted a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to see outflows — year-to-date redemptions hit $327 million. - Perpetual contract open interest held steady in the $28B-$30B range. Options traders’ gamma positioning in the $68k-$72k range suggests hedging activity will amplify two-way swings in that band. Wintermute says the ceasefire trade is dead, with markets now in escalation mode. However, the market reaction function is fading. A Hormuz Strait reopening could push Bitcoin above $75k, while ongoing escalation would keep prices range-bound with a downside bias. Earnings season could shift some focus back to fundamentals, possibly adjusting positioning near the range’s extremes.