Analyst: US-Iran Deal Failure Could See Bitcoin Fall to $65,000

April 12 – Per a Forbes report, U.S. Vice President Pence confirmed no agreement was reached after 21 hours of negotiations, citing Iran’s refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear program. Trump had previously warned of “total destruction” for Iran if talks collapsed. The Iran conflict has driven weeks of crypto market volatility, amplified by tariff unrest—Bitcoin dropped below $70k earlier this month. Ahead of talks, crypto analysts noted: Bitcoin could hit $80k if a deal is struck, or slide to $65k if negotiations break down. On the bullish front: On-chain wallet data shows the largest Bitcoin whale has been steadily buying amid peak geopolitical tensions, not selling. The reasoning: Escalating conflict could disrupt Persian Gulf oil supplies, pushing oil prices higher, reigniting inflation, and prompting the Fed to delay rate cuts—scenarios where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold typically outperform. Bearish take: Gold trader and long-time Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff argues investors will flee Bitcoin for gold as tensions escalate. Schiff has predicted a Bitcoin “collapse,” calling gold the only true safe-haven asset in wartime. He also hinted administration insiders may be profiting from news-driven volatility tied to the conflict. If Trump follows through on his threat, stocks and crypto will almost certainly sell off in tandem. Looking ahead: Pence remained firm in a press conference but didn’t rule out ongoing talks. Iran’s Parliament Speaker has demanded a Lebanon ceasefire and the release of frozen assets as prerequisites for formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the next 72 hours hinge on two key questions: Will the ceasefire hold? Will Trump escalate the conflict? Whale wallets are still buying at current levels, signaling at least some big investors are betting on a stable outcome.